The graph above plots the standard deviation of each week’s national likely-voter polls using the midpoint of the fieldwork period as the basis for classification. Values...
Undecideds split evenly using data from five elections Post-Election Reported Vote for Pre-Election Undecideds and Third-Party Voters I extended the analysis of undecided voters described in...
No evidence they disproportionately prefer the challenger Some people posting over on Nate Silver’s 538 blog keep making the claim that undecided voters usually split 2:1...
No trends found for Ohio, just a two-point debate effect. I usually do not publish raw regression results on the main pages of this blog, relegating...
Until now I have been using data from the polling archives at RealClearPolitics for this blog. Today I began looking at the larger archive of polls...
Rasmussen Reports accounts for 38 of the 141 recent likely-voter polls in my dataset from Pollster or fully 27% of all the observations. Earlier I have...
Using the 141 national likely-voter polls from the Pollster database since July 1st we can examine how the dynamics of the race have changed since the...
President leads in three states that would cement an Electoral College victory The Electoral Vote application at the New York Times has allocated all but nine...
A bunch of new polls today, October 23rd, show more positive results for the President than we have seen recently. Our trend model still detects no...
This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
