The events in Newtown, Connecticut, give us all pause. It has led me to examining data on gun ownership beginning with the 2010 General Social Survey...
With this post I begin a new series of reports based on my analysis of state-level data on health insurance coverage. I began this research in...
Over the weekend Republican-leaning commentators at Nate Silver’s 538 Blog have been advancing the theory that President Obama’s victory can be attributed to “Superstorm” Sandy which...
Over the past few posts I have narrowed down the list of states where we might claim gerrymandering affected the outcome of the 2012 Congressional election. ...
Updated, November 24, 2012, with complete results for all seats except the NC 7th. If seats in Congress were allocated in an unbiased fashion, the Democrats...
Results updated on November 23, 2012, with final Congressional results for 434 races; NC 7th is still undecided. It is now time to put some of...
Last week I published a chart showing the historical relationship between House seats and votes since 1940. Using the district-level level 2012 results compiled by David...
For only the third time since 1940, the winner of the national popular vote for Congress failed to take control of the House of Representatives. The...
President’s Electoral Vote Share Follows Historical Trend Political scientists use the term “swing ratio” to measure how a party’s share of the seats in a legislative...
Here is the final version of the trends and house effects model that I have been estimating over the course of the past month. It shows...
