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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Can the Democrats Retake the House in 2018?

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  • June 25, 2017

Now that all the gnashing of teeth has ended after the Republicans managed to hold on to the Georgia Sixth, perhaps we can step back and...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering Presidential Approval

It Don’t Mean a Thing …

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  • November 6, 2016

Here are my final tests for who is ahead in the swing states.  The situation looks rather bleak for Donald Trump. As in 2012, I am...

2016 Presidential Election

The State of the Race

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  • October 28, 2016

Donald Trump has gained ground over Hillary Clinton during the campaign, but the combined effect of events leaves her with a predicted five-point advantage on Election...

2016 Presidential Election

Swing State Update

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  • August 10, 2016

I have expanded the list of states that might play a role in determining the outcome of the Presidential vote in the fall.  For each state...

2016 Presidential Election

Who Leads in the Swing States?

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  • August 1, 2016

As in every Presidential election, the outcome will be determined by a very small number of states. As I did in 2012, I have compiled the...

2016 Presidential Election Poll Reports

Race to the Bottom

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  • July 11, 2016

As most everyone who follows politics knows by now, we enter the unprecedented 2016 Presidential election with the candidates of both major parties disliked by a...

2016 Presidential Election Poll Reports

A Simple Model of Senate Elections

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  • February 1, 2016

Without a President seeking re-election at the top of the ticket, the Democrats face a substantial challenge if they wish to win back the Senate in...

Senatorial Elections

Iowa: So Many Polls. So Few Respondents.

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  • January 31, 2016

Pollsters have conducted over 44,000 interviews among Iowa’s 160,000 Republicans, but they probably interviewed just 15,000 unique people.  A majority of those polled took part in...

2016 Presidential Election Poll Reports Technical Topics

A Tale of Two Candidacies

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  • January 11, 2016

Trump fares better in polls conducted by robots; Sanders polls better when humans conduct the interview.  Sanders also shows greater strength in polls of “likely” voters....

2016 Presidential Election Poll Reports Presidential Primaries

The Kentucky Gubernatorial Election

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  • November 4, 2015

Political observers were shocked when the Republican candidate for governor in Kentucky, Matt Bevin, won a resounding victory over Democrat Jack Conway. Conway, the incumbent Attorney...

Gubernatorial Elections
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