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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

How Well Do Generic-Ballot Polls Predict House Elections?

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  • August 3, 2018

I have compiled the results of generic-ballot polls taken near to an election and compared them to the actual division of the Congressional vote.  The table...

Congressional Elections Poll Reports Technical Topics

The Election in Pictures

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  • August 2, 2018

Some data updated through September 2. Sunday, July 29th, marked the point when there are just 100 days left until the November midterm.  In this post...

Congressional Elections Presidential Approval Senatorial Elections

From Job Approval to the Ballot Box

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  • July 20, 2018

“Generic-ballot” polls predict a nine or ten point Democratic victory in House elections this fall, enough to flip the chamber. As most observers know, support for...

Congressional Elections Presidential Approval

Update on Family Separations

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  • July 20, 2018

Some 1,500 children remain separated from their parents and in government custody.  Only 63 percent of children whose cases have been officially been reviewed have been...

Immigration

Tracking Family Separations

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  • July 10, 2018

How the number of separated children grew to nearly 4,300, and why many more than 103 of them must be under five years of age. In...

Immigration

How Many Separated Children are in Custody?

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  • July 7, 2018

The Department of Homeland Security’s own reports indicate that nearly 5,000 children have been separated at the border. Some 4,300 remain in custody, many more than the...

Immigration

Are Some Republicans Leaving Donald Trump?

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  • June 19, 2018

Recent polling suggests Trump has been losing support among Republican voters since the spring.  Likely Republican voters show less support than other Republicans. It has become...

Congressional Elections Presidential Approval

How Popular will the President be in November?

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  • June 15, 2018

Most presidents are less popular when mid-terms are held than they are in late spring. In an earlier piece about the “generic” Congressional ballot question, I...

Congressional Elections Presidential Approval

Will there be a “Singapore Surge?”

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  • June 13, 2018

Republicans are hoping the Singapore summit will boost the President’s approval ratings, but summit meetings have historically had only small effects. Nor were those effects uniformly...

Presidential Approval

Don’t Count Those Chickens Just Yet

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  • June 9, 2018

Support for the President’s party on the generic House ballot is historically lower on election day than in the spring. Most “generic ballot” polls attempting to...

Congressional Elections
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House Retirements 2021-2022

Recent Posts

  • Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress
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  • Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”
  • Technical Appendix for “Not All Midterms are Created Equal”
  • Not All Midterms are Created Equal

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