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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Can Midwesterner Amy Klobuchar Find Support in Iowa?

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  • February 6, 2019

Iowa Democrats’ preference for Midwesterners may work to Amy Klobuchar’s advantage. Whatever strategic reasoning influenced Amy Klobuchar to announce her almost-certain decision to run for President,...

2020 Presidential Primaries Presidential Primaries

Updated Data Archive

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  • February 1, 2019

I have updated the datasets made available here.  

Data Library Technical Topics

Can Trump Recover?

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  • January 27, 2019

Compared to recent presidents, only George H. W. Bush was as unpopular when standing for re-election as Donald Trump is today. Bush lost. Recent opinion polls,...

2020 Presidential Primaries Presidential Approval

The Grim Reaper of Primary Campaigns

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  • January 22, 2019

Observers of the 2020 primaries expect a huge crop of Democratic candidates to declare before next February’s Iowa caucuses. History tells us that few of those...

2020 Presidential Primaries

Retirements as a Bellwether for House Elections

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  • December 18, 2018

There have been eleven midterm elections since 1938 when House retirements by one party outnumbered those of the other party by six or more seats.  In...

Congressional Elections House Retirements Technical Topics

The Economy in the 2018 Congressional Election

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  • December 4, 2018

Americans saw their real disposable personal incomes grow by a fairly average two percent over the past year.  With that mediocre rate of income growth, a...

Congressional Elections

No, the “Blue Wave” did not wash away gerrymandering

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  • November 29, 2018

Democrats have won, on average, about eight fewer seats in each election since 2010 than we would expect given their popular vote.  The surge in Democratic...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

Governors and Gerrymandering: Update

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  • November 7, 2018

Democratic governors in seven “red” states, and Republicans in two “blue” ones, will help insulate 81 likely Congressional seats from gerrymandering after 2020. Redistricting for another...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

Governors and Gerrymanders in 2021

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  • October 22, 2018

Elections this fall may limit the extent of gerrymandering for some 200 House seats after the 2020 Census. Americans will elect thirty-four governors to four-year terms...

Gerrymandering

Governors Hold the Cards in Congressional Redistricting

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  • August 29, 2018

In “split-control” states, Republicans won 6.2 percent more seats than expected when they held the governorship; when Democrats held that office, Republicans won 6.5 percent fewer...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering
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House Retirements 2021-2022

Recent Posts

  • Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress
  • What Drives Biden’s Job Approval
  • Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”
  • Technical Appendix for “Not All Midterms are Created Equal”
  • Not All Midterms are Created Equal

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