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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Senate Elections in a Time of Economic Contraction

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  • April 3, 2020

The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...

Senatorial Elections

The Politics of Stay-At-Home Orders

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  • April 1, 2020

On her blog, journalist Marcy Wheeler helpfully tallied the twenty-seven states whose governors have imposed stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Virginia joined this group late...

COVID-19

Money in Senate Elections

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  • March 9, 2020

Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...

Senatorial Elections Technical Topics

It’s Not All Name Recognition

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  • May 24, 2019

The polling organizations at both Quinnipiac and Monmouth Colleges this week released “favorability” scores for all the Democratic candidates. Respondents are asked “is your opinion of...

2020 Presidential Primaries

Gerrymandering: Finding the Deviant Elections

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  • May 16, 2019

During oral argument in Rucho v. Common Cause, the North Carolina gerrymandering case, the Supreme Court and the attorneys for the parties considered a variety of...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering and “Proportionality:” Setting the Baseline

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  • May 13, 2019

In my last post I considered what I called the “Breyer criterion” for identifying partisan gerrymandering — a party winning half the vote in a state...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering and the “Breyer Criterion”

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  • May 9, 2019

On March 26th the Supreme Court heard oral argument in Rucho v. Common Cause. The case concerns whether North Carolina’s post-2010 electoral map so disadvantages Democratic...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

Guns Still Hold Little Allure for Younger Americans and Women

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  • March 20, 2019

Thirty-six percent of 18-49 households with a man present own guns as compared to just sixteen percent in households with no man in residence. Gun ownership...

Gun Violence

Win Early or Go Home

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  • March 9, 2019

Only twice in nine elections has the eventual Democratic nominee not won one of Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa remains fairly wide open, but Bernie Sanders...

2020 Presidential Primaries

Too Soon for Impeachment?

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  • March 6, 2019

House Democrats have been resisting pressures from the most intensely anti-Trump part of their party who think impeachment should begin now. Congressional Democrats have instead taken...

Presidential Approval
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House Retirements 2021-2022

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