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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Will the race tighten as the election approaches?

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  • October 5, 2012

Reading Nate Silver’s 538 blog I see commentators wondering whether the margin in the polls naturally tightens as the election approaches.  For 2008 I can say...

2012 Presidential Election

Is the President a Bargain at Intrade?

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  • October 5, 2012

The price for ten contracts at Intrade on Barack Obama winning the Presidential election has fallen some twelve dollars since September 29th, and fully seven dollars...

2012 Presidential Election

First thoughts on the first debate

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  • October 4, 2012

Twenty minutes into this event I thought the candidates had managed to lose at least half the audience.  A snooze fest cuts both ways, though. This...

2012 Presidential Election

A few appetizers before the debate

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  • October 3, 2012

I have been looking at a couple of the polling reports from the past week.  Every single poll for every Federal race is listed at RealClearPolitics. ...

2012 Presidential Election

Welcome to Politics by the Numbers!

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  • October 1, 2012

I will be talking about a variety of data-based projects that I have been working on for the past few months.  Two of them concern elections,...

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