Using the 141 national likely-voter polls from the Pollster database since July 1st we can examine how the dynamics of the race have changed since the...
President leads in three states that would cement an Electoral College victory The Electoral Vote application at the New York Times has allocated all but nine...
A bunch of new polls today, October 23rd, show more positive results for the President than we have seen recently. Our trend model still detects no...
This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
The Hartford Courant/UConn poll at Obama+3 took a bit of the sting out of the Gallup Tracking result of Romney+7. President Obama is still projected to...
Discussions have surfaced again over the possibility of a President being elected without a popular vote majority. The relationship between the winning candidate’s Electoral Vote margin...
I looked at the internals of the two polls. CBS used a subsample of a large pre-recruited national online sample who agree to be interviewed over...
Following the same procedures discussed in other postings here, I have regressed the size of the Obama lead in polls of likely voters taken after July...
This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
I have been trying to determine whether President Obama’s current standing in the polls is running ahead or behind this time four years ago. To answer...
