President leads in three states that would cement an Electoral College victory The Electoral Vote application at the New York Times has allocated all but nine...
A bunch of new polls today, October 23rd, show more positive results for the President than we have seen recently. Our trend model still detects no...
This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
The Hartford Courant/UConn poll at Obama+3 took a bit of the sting out of the Gallup Tracking result of Romney+7. President Obama is still projected to...
Discussions have surfaced again over the possibility of a President being elected without a popular vote majority. The relationship between the winning candidate’s Electoral Vote margin...
I looked at the internals of the two polls. CBS used a subsample of a large pre-recruited national online sample who agree to be interviewed over...
Following the same procedures discussed in other postings here, I have regressed the size of the Obama lead in polls of likely voters taken after July...
This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
I have been trying to determine whether President Obama’s current standing in the polls is running ahead or behind this time four years ago. To answer...
Reading Nate Silver’s 538 blog I see commentators wondering whether the margin in the polls naturally tightens as the election approaches. For 2008 I can say...
