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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Obama survives Gallup with a bit of help from Hartford

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  • October 18, 2012

The Hartford Courant/UConn poll at Obama+3 took a bit of the sting out of the Gallup Tracking result of Romney+7.  President Obama is still projected to...

2012 Presidential Election

Winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote

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  • October 15, 2012

Discussions have surfaced again over the possibility of a President being elected without a popular vote majority.  The relationship between the winning candidate’s Electoral Vote margin...

2012 Presidential Election

Comments on VP Debate insta-polls

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  • October 13, 2012

I looked at the internals of the two polls. CBS used a subsample of a large pre-recruited national online sample who agree to be interviewed over...

Technical Topics

President Obama’s loses his lead in national likely-voter polls after the Denver debate

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  • October 12, 2012

Following the same procedures discussed in other postings here, I have regressed the size of the Obama lead in polls of likely voters taken after July...

2012 Presidential Election

2004 First Debate Results Suggest Race Could Stagnate

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  • October 12, 2012

This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election.  RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...

2012 Presidential Election

Follow the Yellow Brick Road

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  • October 8, 2012

I have been trying to determine whether President Obama’s current standing in the polls is running ahead or behind this time four years ago. To answer...

2012 Presidential Election

Will the race tighten as the election approaches?

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  • October 5, 2012

Reading Nate Silver’s 538 blog I see commentators wondering whether the margin in the polls naturally tightens as the election approaches.  For 2008 I can say...

2012 Presidential Election

Is the President a Bargain at Intrade?

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  • October 5, 2012

The price for ten contracts at Intrade on Barack Obama winning the Presidential election has fallen some twelve dollars since September 29th, and fully seven dollars...

2012 Presidential Election

First thoughts on the first debate

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  • October 4, 2012

Twenty minutes into this event I thought the candidates had managed to lose at least half the audience.  A snooze fest cuts both ways, though. This...

2012 Presidential Election

A few appetizers before the debate

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  • October 3, 2012

I have been looking at a couple of the polling reports from the past week.  Every single poll for every Federal race is listed at RealClearPolitics. ...

2012 Presidential Election
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