I have reworked my model for Senate elections using data for elections in 2016 and 2018. That model relied on three factors to predict the vote...
Technical Topics
The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering deserve kudos for providing daily statistics of the spread of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19. Data...
Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...
These are the regressions which underpin the results presented in this posting. The dependent variable is the Democratic share of the two-party vote for Senate in...
Removing Bill deBlasio from the favorability model leads to a slightly more positive slope and a less negative intercept. With deBlasio included: Same relationship without deBlasio....
These regressions measure the relationship between the percent of seats awarded to Democrats as a function of the percent of votes that party won. The “national-level”...
There have been eleven midterm elections since 1938 when House retirements by one party outnumbered those of the other party by six or more seats. In...
I have compiled the results of generic-ballot polls taken near to an election and compared them to the actual division of the Congressional vote. The table...
1976 was a horrible year for Senate Republicans; adjusting for that fact makes a slight difference to my 2018 predictions. Re-examining the results for my original...
