I have reworked my model for Senate elections using data for elections in 2016 and 2018. That model relied on three factors to predict the vote...
Senatorial Elections
The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...
Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...
The Democrats have a decent chance to take control of the Senate. I have updated my Senate predictions using the fourth-quarter, 2019, favorability data for Senators...
In a prior series of posts, I constructed a “simple model of Senate elections” using national data across elections. This helped identify some key factors that...
These are the regressions which underpin the results presented in this posting. The dependent variable is the Democratic share of the two-party vote for Senate in...
Some data updated through September 2. Sunday, July 29th, marked the point when there are just 100 days left until the November midterm. In this post...
1976 was a horrible year for Senate Republicans; adjusting for that fact makes a slight difference to my 2018 predictions. Re-examining the results for my original...
Historical voting patterns and current economic and political conditions predict the Democrats can win 18 of the 33 Senate seats in contention this fall and perhaps...
Comparing last night’s results for the Special Election in Alabama to prior elections in that state shows the path which brought Doug Jones his unlikely victory. ...
