Here are the results of four “regression experiments” using net job approval using polls of voters from the FiveThirtyEight database. I have removed the 538 so-called...
Presidential Approval
House Democrats have been resisting pressures from the most intensely anti-Trump part of their party who think impeachment should begin now. Congressional Democrats have instead taken...
Compared to recent presidents, only George H. W. Bush was as unpopular when standing for re-election as Donald Trump is today. Bush lost. Recent opinion polls,...
Some data updated through September 2. Sunday, July 29th, marked the point when there are just 100 days left until the November midterm. In this post...
“Generic-ballot” polls predict a nine or ten point Democratic victory in House elections this fall, enough to flip the chamber. As most observers know, support for...
Recent polling suggests Trump has been losing support among Republican voters since the spring. Likely Republican voters show less support than other Republicans. It has become...
Most presidents are less popular when mid-terms are held than they are in late spring. In an earlier piece about the “generic” Congressional ballot question, I...
Republicans are hoping the Singapore summit will boost the President’s approval ratings, but summit meetings have historically had only small effects. Nor were those effects uniformly...
Donald Trump’s polling figures showed little change after last year’s attack on Syria. The 1997 movie Wag the Dog introduced the public to a notion common...
I used a relatively simple model to generate the graph shown in the accompanying article. I ran weighted least-squares regressions against the logarithm of the number...
