Recent polling suggests Trump has been losing support among Republican voters since the spring. Likely Republican voters show less support than other Republicans. It has become...
Congressional Elections
Most presidents are less popular when mid-terms are held than they are in late spring. In an earlier piece about the “generic” Congressional ballot question, I...
Support for the President’s party on the generic House ballot is historically lower on election day than in the spring. Most “generic ballot” polls attempting to...
Democrats would lead by nearly fourteen points in “generic” Congressional ballot polls next November if the trends seen since Trump took office continue. I have written...
Three more Republican House Members announced they would not seek re-election this week, bringing the total number of retiring Republican Members to 34 according to the...
The pace of Republican retirements predicts that Democrats should take back control of the House of Representatives this fall by a margin of eight or nine...
In the previous article I showed that Democrats must win at least 53 percent of the national two-party vote for Congress in order to retake control...
Now that all the gnashing of teeth has ended after the Republicans managed to hold on to the Georgia Sixth, perhaps we can step back and...
I am extending the simple model I presented in 2012 relating the proportion of House seats won by Democrats against that party’s share of the (two-party)...
This table presents those Republicans who voted against H.R. 2775, the resolution to end the government shutdown and extend the debt ceiling until February 7, 2014. ...
