In my last post I considered what I called the “Breyer criterion” for identifying partisan gerrymandering — a party winning half the vote in a state...
Congressional Elections
On March 26th the Supreme Court heard oral argument in Rucho v. Common Cause. The case concerns whether North Carolina’s post-2010 electoral map so disadvantages Democratic...
There have been eleven midterm elections since 1938 when House retirements by one party outnumbered those of the other party by six or more seats. In...
Americans saw their real disposable personal incomes grow by a fairly average two percent over the past year. With that mediocre rate of income growth, a...
Democrats have won, on average, about eight fewer seats in each election since 2010 than we would expect given their popular vote. The surge in Democratic...
Democratic governors in seven “red” states, and Republicans in two “blue” ones, will help insulate 81 likely Congressional seats from gerrymandering after 2020. Redistricting for another...
In “split-control” states, Republicans won 6.2 percent more seats than expected when they held the governorship; when Democrats held that office, Republicans won 6.5 percent fewer...
I have compiled the results of generic-ballot polls taken near to an election and compared them to the actual division of the Congressional vote. The table...
Some data updated through September 2. Sunday, July 29th, marked the point when there are just 100 days left until the November midterm. In this post...
“Generic-ballot” polls predict a nine or ten point Democratic victory in House elections this fall, enough to flip the chamber. As most observers know, support for...
