In the previous article I examined the effects of five factors on fluctuations in the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot. the job-approval rating of President...
Congressional Elections
Here are the results of four “regression experiments” using net job approval using polls of voters from the FiveThirtyEight database. I have removed the 538 so-called...
While poll watchers hang on every little change in numbers like the lead on the generic ballot, this article will ask some broader questions. What factors...
“Generic-ballot” polls show that the Supreme Court’s abortion decision added nearly five points to the Democrats’ margin. No other events had any measurable effect. Joe Biden’s...
In the states where redistricting maps have been released, Democrats appear to be about ten seats behind the number they would receive based solely on the...
The first new redistricting maps based on the 2020 Census have begun to appear, occasioning the usual questions about whether a state has been gerrymandered or...
Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...
I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...
During oral argument in Rucho v. Common Cause, the North Carolina gerrymandering case, the Supreme Court and the attorneys for the parties considered a variety of...
These regressions measure the relationship between the percent of seats awarded to Democrats as a function of the percent of votes that party won. The “national-level”...
