Removing Bill deBlasio from the favorability model leads to a slightly more positive slope and a less negative intercept. With deBlasio included: Same relationship without deBlasio....
2020 Presidential Primaries
The polling organizations at both Quinnipiac and Monmouth Colleges this week released “favorability” scores for all the Democratic candidates. Respondents are asked “is your opinion of...
Only twice in nine elections has the eventual Democratic nominee not won one of Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa remains fairly wide open, but Bernie Sanders...
Iowa Democrats’ preference for Midwesterners may work to Amy Klobuchar’s advantage. Whatever strategic reasoning influenced Amy Klobuchar to announce her almost-certain decision to run for President,...
Compared to recent presidents, only George H. W. Bush was as unpopular when standing for re-election as Donald Trump is today. Bush lost. Recent opinion polls,...
Observers of the 2020 primaries expect a huge crop of Democratic candidates to declare before next February’s Iowa caucuses. History tells us that few of those...
