Over the weekend Republican-leaning commentators at Nate Silver’s 538 Blog have been advancing the theory that President Obama’s victory can be attributed to “Superstorm” Sandy which...
2012 Presidential Election
President’s Electoral Vote Share Follows Historical Trend Political scientists use the term “swing ratio” to measure how a party’s share of the seats in a legislative...
Here is the final version of the trends and house effects model that I have been estimating over the course of the past month. It shows...
The graph above plots the standard deviation of each week’s national likely-voter polls using the midpoint of the fieldwork period as the basis for classification. Values...
Undecideds split evenly using data from five elections Post-Election Reported Vote for Pre-Election Undecideds and Third-Party Voters I extended the analysis of undecided voters described in...
No evidence they disproportionately prefer the challenger Some people posting over on Nate Silver’s 538 blog keep making the claim that undecided voters usually split 2:1...
No trends found for Ohio, just a two-point debate effect. I usually do not publish raw regression results on the main pages of this blog, relegating...
Until now I have been using data from the polling archives at RealClearPolitics for this blog. Today I began looking at the larger archive of polls...
Rasmussen Reports accounts for 38 of the 141 recent likely-voter polls in my dataset from Pollster or fully 27% of all the observations. Earlier I have...
Using the 141 national likely-voter polls from the Pollster database since July 1st we can examine how the dynamics of the race have changed since the...
