Support for the President’s party on the generic House ballot is historically lower on election day than in the spring. Most “generic ballot” polls attempting to...
Peter Lemieux
1976 was a horrible year for Senate Republicans; adjusting for that fact makes a slight difference to my 2018 predictions. Re-examining the results for my original...
Donald Trump’s polling figures showed little change after last year’s attack on Syria. The 1997 movie Wag the Dog introduced the public to a notion common...
Historical voting patterns and current economic and political conditions predict the Democrats can win 18 of the 33 Senate seats in contention this fall and perhaps...
Democrats would lead by nearly fourteen points in “generic” Congressional ballot polls next November if the trends seen since Trump took office continue. I have written...
Three more Republican House Members announced they would not seek re-election this week, bringing the total number of retiring Republican Members to 34 according to the...
The pace of Republican retirements predicts that Democrats should take back control of the House of Representatives this fall by a margin of eight or nine...
Comparing last night’s results for the Special Election in Alabama to prior elections in that state shows the path which brought Doug Jones his unlikely victory. ...
Alabama’s citizens will head to the polls to vote in the most competitive Senate election that state has seen for decades. Democrat Doug Jones is trying...
I used a relatively simple model to generate the graph shown in the accompanying article. I ran weighted least-squares regressions against the logarithm of the number...
