Most presidents are less popular when mid-terms are held than they are in late spring. In an earlier piece about the “generic” Congressional ballot question, I...
Peter Lemieux
Republicans are hoping the Singapore summit will boost the President’s approval ratings, but summit meetings have historically had only small effects. Nor were those effects uniformly...
Support for the President’s party on the generic House ballot is historically lower on election day than in the spring. Most “generic ballot” polls attempting to...
1976 was a horrible year for Senate Republicans; adjusting for that fact makes a slight difference to my 2018 predictions. Re-examining the results for my original...
Donald Trump’s polling figures showed little change after last year’s attack on Syria. The 1997 movie Wag the Dog introduced the public to a notion common...
Historical voting patterns and current economic and political conditions predict the Democrats can win 18 of the 33 Senate seats in contention this fall and perhaps...
Democrats would lead by nearly fourteen points in “generic” Congressional ballot polls next November if the trends seen since Trump took office continue. I have written...
Three more Republican House Members announced they would not seek re-election this week, bringing the total number of retiring Republican Members to 34 according to the...
The pace of Republican retirements predicts that Democrats should take back control of the House of Representatives this fall by a margin of eight or nine...
Comparing last night’s results for the Special Election in Alabama to prior elections in that state shows the path which brought Doug Jones his unlikely victory. ...
