Some data updated through September 2. Sunday, July 29th, marked the point when there are just 100 days left until the November midterm. In this post...
Peter Lemieux
“Generic-ballot” polls predict a nine or ten point Democratic victory in House elections this fall, enough to flip the chamber. As most observers know, support for...
Some 1,500 children remain separated from their parents and in government custody. Only 63 percent of children whose cases have been officially been reviewed have been...
How the number of separated children grew to nearly 4,300, and why many more than 103 of them must be under five years of age. In...
The Department of Homeland Security’s own reports indicate that nearly 5,000 children have been separated at the border. Some 4,300 remain in custody, many more than the...
Recent polling suggests Trump has been losing support among Republican voters since the spring. Likely Republican voters show less support than other Republicans. It has become...
Most presidents are less popular when mid-terms are held than they are in late spring. In an earlier piece about the “generic” Congressional ballot question, I...
Republicans are hoping the Singapore summit will boost the President’s approval ratings, but summit meetings have historically had only small effects. Nor were those effects uniformly...
Support for the President’s party on the generic House ballot is historically lower on election day than in the spring. Most “generic ballot” polls attempting to...
1976 was a horrible year for Senate Republicans; adjusting for that fact makes a slight difference to my 2018 predictions. Re-examining the results for my original...
