Peter Lemieux
Compared to recent presidents, only George H. W. Bush was as unpopular when standing for re-election as Donald Trump is today. Bush lost. Recent opinion polls,...
Observers of the 2020 primaries expect a huge crop of Democratic candidates to declare before next February’s Iowa caucuses. History tells us that few of those...
There have been eleven midterm elections since 1938 when House retirements by one party outnumbered those of the other party by six or more seats. In...
Americans saw their real disposable personal incomes grow by a fairly average two percent over the past year. With that mediocre rate of income growth, a...
Democrats have won, on average, about eight fewer seats in each election since 2010 than we would expect given their popular vote. The surge in Democratic...
Democratic governors in seven “red” states, and Republicans in two “blue” ones, will help insulate 81 likely Congressional seats from gerrymandering after 2020. Redistricting for another...
Elections this fall may limit the extent of gerrymandering for some 200 House seats after the 2020 Census. Americans will elect thirty-four governors to four-year terms...
In “split-control” states, Republicans won 6.2 percent more seats than expected when they held the governorship; when Democrats held that office, Republicans won 6.5 percent fewer...
I have compiled the results of generic-ballot polls taken near to an election and compared them to the actual division of the Congressional vote. The table...
