I have reworked my model for Senate elections using data for elections in 2016 and 2018. That model relied on three factors to predict the vote...
Peter Lemieux
I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...
A simple trend model predicts Joe Biden will hold a lead in the polls between 9.8 and thirteen points on Election Day. Biden has increased his...
The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering deserve kudos for providing daily statistics of the spread of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19. Data...
The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...
Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...
The Democrats have a decent chance to take control of the Senate. I have updated my Senate predictions using the fourth-quarter, 2019, favorability data for Senators...
In a prior series of posts, I constructed a “simple model of Senate elections” using national data across elections. This helped identify some key factors that...
These are the regressions which underpin the results presented in this posting. The dependent variable is the Democratic share of the two-party vote for Senate in...
