This graph presents the pre-debate and post-debate trends in polls conducted during the 2004 election. RCP does not report whether the data represent registered voters or...
Peter Lemieux
President Obama’s loses his lead in national likely-voter polls after the Denver debate. The five likely-voter polls taken since October 4th suggest the 2012 Election is...
I have been trying to determine whether President Obama’s current standing in the polls is running ahead or behind this time four years ago. To answer...
Sample: Polls of likely voter with fieldwork completed after July 4th; includes 119 polls from 2008 and 47 from 2012. Last 2012 observation is Pew on...
Polls come in three flavors depending on the population being sampled. Many polls sample all adults, but election polls typically sample either self-reported registered voters, or...
I noted in the competitiveness piece that both Republican candidates only lead in the polls on an eighth of the last 120 days of the campaign. ...
Applies to Will the race tighten as the election approaches? I compiled all the polling data from RCP for the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections with...
Reading Nate Silver’s 538 blog I see commentators wondering whether the margin in the polls naturally tightens as the election approaches. For 2008 I can say...
The price for ten contracts at Intrade on Barack Obama winning the Presidential election has fallen some twelve dollars since September 29th, and fully seven dollars...
Twenty minutes into this event I thought the candidates had managed to lose at least half the audience. A snooze fest cuts both ways, though. This...
