The reapportionment process following the 2010 Census transferred twelve Congressional districts from ten largely Northern and Midwestern states to eight largely Southern and Western ones. The...
Peter Lemieux
Estimating the Effects of Redistricting I took a rather simple-minded approach to the task of measuring redistricting effects. I began by measuring the relationship between the...
For only the third time since 1940, the winner of the national popular vote for Congress failed to take control of the House of Representatives. The...
President’s Electoral Vote Share Follows Historical Trend Political scientists use the term “swing ratio” to measure how a party’s share of the seats in a legislative...
Here is the final version of the trends and house effects model that I have been estimating over the course of the past month. It shows...
Updates to the simple trends and house effects models for all 190 national likely-voter polls released as of noon on Monday, November 5th and archived at...
The graph above plots the standard deviation of each week’s national likely-voter polls using the midpoint of the fieldwork period as the basis for classification. Values...
Undecideds split evenly using data from five elections Post-Election Reported Vote for Pre-Election Undecideds and Third-Party Voters I extended the analysis of undecided voters described in...
No evidence they disproportionately prefer the challenger Some people posting over on Nate Silver’s 538 blog keep making the claim that undecided voters usually split 2:1...
No trends found for Ohio, just a two-point debate effect. I usually do not publish raw regression results on the main pages of this blog, relegating...
