In the states where redistricting maps have been released, Democrats appear to be about ten seats behind the number they would receive based solely on the...
Peter Lemieux
The first new redistricting maps based on the 2020 Census have begun to appear, occasioning the usual questions about whether a state has been gerrymandered or...
Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...
Two commonly-suggested reforms to the Electoral College — expanding the size of the House of Representatives, or allocating Electoral Votes in proportion to the popular vote...
I have reworked my model for Senate elections using data for elections in 2016 and 2018. That model relied on three factors to predict the vote...
I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...
A simple trend model predicts Joe Biden will hold a lead in the polls between 9.8 and thirteen points on Election Day. Biden has increased his...
The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering deserve kudos for providing daily statistics of the spread of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19. Data...
The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...
