I took the Poole-Rosenthal scores for the 117th Congress from voteview.com and removed all the Members who were not re-elected to the 118th. Here is the...
Peter Lemieux
In the previous article I examined the effects of five factors on fluctuations in the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot. the job-approval rating of President...
Here are the results of four “regression experiments” using net job approval using polls of voters from the FiveThirtyEight database. I have removed the 538 so-called...
While poll watchers hang on every little change in numbers like the lead on the generic ballot, this article will ask some broader questions. What factors...
“Generic-ballot” polls show that the Supreme Court’s abortion decision added nearly five points to the Democrats’ margin. No other events had any measurable effect. Joe Biden’s...
In the states where redistricting maps have been released, Democrats appear to be about ten seats behind the number they would receive based solely on the...
The first new redistricting maps based on the 2020 Census have begun to appear, occasioning the usual questions about whether a state has been gerrymandered or...
Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...
Two commonly-suggested reforms to the Electoral College — expanding the size of the House of Representatives, or allocating Electoral Votes in proportion to the popular vote...
I have reworked my model for Senate elections using data for elections in 2016 and 2018. That model relied on three factors to predict the vote...
