A bunch of new polls today, October 23rd, show more positive results for the President than we have seen recently. Our trend model still detects no evidence that the race has stagnated like it did in 2004, but the President has not rebounded since his drop in the polls after October 4th. As of now, he is predicted to hold an 0.8% lead on Election Day.
If the Gallup Tracking outlier (the -7 value) is excluded, the predicted lead for the President jumps to 1.1%.
