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Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Redistricting Update – 1

Redistricting Update – 1

The 2021 Redistricting Scorecard

The 2021 Redistricting Scorecard

A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout

A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout

Reforming the Electoral College

Reforming the Electoral College

Redistricting Update – 1

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  • November 15, 2021

In the states where redistricting maps have been released, Democrats appear to be about ten seats behind the number they would receive based solely on the...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

The 2021 Redistricting Scorecard

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  • November 4, 2021

The first new redistricting maps based on the 2020 Census have begun to appear, occasioning the usual questions about whether a state has been gerrymandered or...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout

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  • September 28, 2021

Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...

Congressional Elections Presidential Elections

Reforming the Electoral College

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  • December 4, 2020

Two commonly-suggested reforms to the Electoral College — expanding the size of the House of Representatives, or allocating Electoral Votes in proportion to the popular vote...

Presidential Elections

Will Retirements Further Reduce the GOP’s Ranks?

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  • August 7, 2020

I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...

Congressional Elections House Retirements

Some Observations on Biden’s Margin in Presidential Polling

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  • June 25, 2020

A simple trend model predicts Joe Biden will hold a lead in the polls between 9.8 and thirteen points on Election Day. Biden has increased his...

2020 Presidential Election Poll Reports

Senate Elections in a Time of Economic Contraction

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  • April 3, 2020

The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...

Senatorial Elections

The Politics of Stay-At-Home Orders

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  • April 1, 2020

On her blog, journalist Marcy Wheeler helpfully tallied the twenty-seven states whose governors have imposed stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Virginia joined this group late...

COVID-19

Money in Senate Elections

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  • March 9, 2020

Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...

Senatorial Elections Technical Topics

It’s Not All Name Recognition

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  • May 24, 2019

The polling organizations at both Quinnipiac and Monmouth Colleges this week released “favorability” scores for all the Democratic candidates. Respondents are asked “is your opinion of...

2020 Presidential Primaries
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House Retirements 2021-2022

Recent Posts

  • Redistricting Update – 1
  • The 2021 Redistricting Scorecard
  • A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout
  • Reforming the Electoral College
  • Modeling Senate Elections Redux

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