Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...
A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout
A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout
Reforming the Electoral College
Reforming the Electoral College
Will Retirements Further Reduce the GOP’s Ranks?
Will Retirements Further Reduce the GOP’s Ranks?
Some Observations on Biden’s Margin in Presidential Polling
Some Observations on Biden’s Margin in Presidential Polling
Two commonly-suggested reforms to the Electoral College — expanding the size of the House of Representatives, or allocating Electoral Votes in proportion to the popular vote...
I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...
A simple trend model predicts Joe Biden will hold a lead in the polls between 9.8 and thirteen points on Election Day. Biden has increased his...
The novel corona virus pretty much guarantees that the American economy will decline this year. While the President and most pundits have focused on how a...
Senate campaigns that outspent their opponents by two-to-one in 2016 and 2018 typically gained a bit over one percent at the polls. Spending by outside groups,...
The polling organizations at both Quinnipiac and Monmouth Colleges this week released “favorability” scores for all the Democratic candidates. Respondents are asked “is your opinion of...
During oral argument in Rucho v. Common Cause, the North Carolina gerrymandering case, the Supreme Court and the attorneys for the parties considered a variety of...
In my last post I considered what I called the “Breyer criterion” for identifying partisan gerrymandering — a party winning half the vote in a state...
