Skip to content

Politics by the Numbers

Political analysis for the numerically inclined

Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress

Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress

What Drives Biden’s Job Approval

What Drives Biden’s Job Approval

Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”

Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”

Not All Midterms are Created Equal

Not All Midterms are Created Equal

Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress

Read more
  • January 6, 2023

I took the Poole-Rosenthal scores for the 117th Congress from voteview.com and removed all the Members who were not re-elected to the 118th. Here is the...

Uncategorized

What Drives Biden’s Job Approval

Read more
  • November 15, 2022

In the previous article I examined the effects of five factors on fluctuations in the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot. the job-approval rating of President...

Congressional Elections Uncategorized

Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”

Read more
  • November 14, 2022

Here are the results of four “regression experiments” using net job approval using polls of voters from the FiveThirtyEight database. I have removed the 538 so-called...

2022 Congressional Election Congressional Elections Presidential Approval

Not All Midterms are Created Equal

Read more
  • November 3, 2022

“Generic-ballot” polls show that the Supreme Court’s abortion decision added nearly five points to the Democrats’ margin. No other events had any measurable effect. Joe Biden’s...

Congressional Elections

Redistricting Update – 1

Read more
  • November 15, 2021

In the states where redistricting maps have been released, Democrats appear to be about ten seats behind the number they would receive based solely on the...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

The 2021 Redistricting Scorecard

Read more
  • November 4, 2021

The first new redistricting maps based on the 2020 Census have begun to appear, occasioning the usual questions about whether a state has been gerrymandered or...

Congressional Elections Gerrymandering

A Simple Dynamic Model of US Turnout

Read more
  • September 28, 2021

Voter turnouts in 2022 and 2024 are likely to run just a bit below their historical high points in 2018 and 2020 but will still be...

Congressional Elections Presidential Elections

Reforming the Electoral College

Read more
  • December 4, 2020

Two commonly-suggested reforms to the Electoral College — expanding the size of the House of Representatives, or allocating Electoral Votes in proportion to the popular vote...

Presidential Elections

Will Retirements Further Reduce the GOP’s Ranks?

Read more
  • August 7, 2020

I have written a couple of articles here about the net difference by party in the number of Representatives retiring from the House. I found a...

Congressional Elections House Retirements

Some Observations on Biden’s Margin in Presidential Polling

Read more
  • June 25, 2020

A simple trend model predicts Joe Biden will hold a lead in the polls between 9.8 and thirteen points on Election Day. Biden has increased his...

2020 Presidential Election Poll Reports
Page 1 of 1112345...10...»Last »

House Retirements 2021-2022

Recent Posts

  • Ideological Locations in the 118th Congress
  • What Drives Biden’s Job Approval
  • Technical Appendix for “What Drives Biden’s Job Approval”
  • Technical Appendix for “Not All Midterms are Created Equal”
  • Not All Midterms are Created Equal

Categories

  • 2012 Presidential Election
  • 2016 Presidential Election
  • 2020 Presidential Election
  • 2020 Presidential Primaries
  • 2022 Congressional Election
  • Climate
  • Congressional Elections
  • COVID-19
  • Data Library
  • General
  • Gerrymandering
  • Gubernatorial Elections
  • Gun Violence
  • Health Insurance Coverage
  • House Retirements
  • Immigration
  • Poll Reports
  • Presidential Approval
  • Presidential Elections
  • Presidential Primaries
  • Roll-Call Votes
  • Senatorial Elections
  • Surveillance
  • Technical Topics
  • Uncategorized

Archives

Politics by the Numbers © 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Powered by WordPress. Theme by Alx.

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website.

You can find out more about which cookies we are using or switch them off in settings.

Politics by the Numbers
Powered by  GDPR Cookie Compliance
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.

If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.