Trump’s Job Approval Rating Key to Democratic Victory in 2018

In the previous article I showed that Democrats must win at least 53 percent of the national two-party vote for Congress in order to retake control of the House of Representatives.  That higher hurdle to success reflects the combined effects of more extensive partisan gerrymandering by Republican state governments and the tendency of Democrats to live in densely-populated urban districts.  These factors make Democratic votes for the House less “efficient” than Republican votes when it comes to determining which party controls the chamber.

So what combination of political and economic factors might result in a Democratic vote of 53 percent?  Political scientists have presented a number of models for mid-term elections over the years.  In an early paper, Edward Tufte showed that presidential approval and short-term changes in personal economic conditions both influenced support for the incumbent using the small sample of mid-term elections he had available at the time.  I find little support for an economic effect, but presidential job approval does play an important role.

I have analyzed both all Congressional elections and off-year elections separately.  The overall results are quite similar.  I am basing the conclusions below on the data for the seventeen off-year elections in my sample from 1950 to 2014.  Rather than treat the parties symmetrically and examine support for the President’s party as I did for the Senate, I am focused this time specifically on factors influencing support for the Democrats in off-year elections since their vote is what matters to this analysis.  It turns out just three variables account for over 90 percent of the variance in the Democratic vote for the House:

As always, the dependent variable is measured as a logit. Values above zero are associated with probabilities above 0.5; negative values represent probabilities below 0.5.  So the positive constant term indicates that the Democrats had an advantage over the period, but the coefficient for the dummy variable representing elections after 1992 is about equal in size and opposite in value.  That pattern corresponds to what we saw in the last article where Democrats had a seat advantage in the House until 1994 that vanished for two decades and has now turned significantly negative.

The other two variables capture the “referendum” aspect of off-year elections.  The Democrats do worse on average when one of their partisans occupies the White House.  However rising job approval ratings do translate into more support at the polls in the off year.  (The approval variable is coded positively for Democrats and negatively for Republicans.  If separate terms are included for Democratic and Republican presidents, the estimated coefficients are nearly identical in size but opposite in sign.  The coding I used imposes the constraint that changes in Presidential approval ratings have the same sized effect for both parties. The job approval data comes from Gallup and is based on averages of their polls near the election.)

I tried a variety of measures of economic conditions, specifically changes in real per capita disposable personal income, and none of them showed any additional effect.  I included a test of the “myopic” voter theory using only the change in income comparing the third and second quarters of the election year.  That fared no better than an approach with a longer time horizon, the growth rate over the past twelve months.  Thus there is no term in my model for economic conditions.

Since we have a Republican president, my estimates are based on the sum of the constant term and the term for elections after 1992.  If I plot the model’s predictions against President Trump’s potential approval ratings, I get this relationship:

If the President’s job approval rating falls below 32 percent, the model predicts the Democrats would win the 53.2 percent of the national House vote that we saw in the last article is required to obtain a majority of the seats in the chamber.  The last three Gallup polls reported Trump’s job approval at 38 or 39 percent.

An approval rating below thirty is historically very unlikely.  Richard Nixon in 1974 and George W. Bush in 2008 had ratings in the mid-twenties.  Jimmy Carter in 1978, George H. W. Bush in 1992, and his son in 2006 received job approval scores in the mid-thirties.  Of course, all of these incumbents had much higher ratings when they took office than did Donald Trump.

The average decline in Presidential job approval between Inauguration Day and the first subsequent off-year election has been a bit under nine points.  That would take Trump’s score down toward the mid-thirties.  However because he started at just 45 percent approval when inaugurated, he may not experience the same decline as did presidents who started from a higher rating.  For instance, it seems unlikely that Trump will experience a decline on the order of 23 points like Barack Obama did going into the 2010 midterm.   In fact, the table suggests the public treats Republican and Democratic presidents quite differently.  The Democrats all posted double-digit declines in job approval by the first mid-term election; none of the Republicans lost more than nine points over the same period, and approval for both Bush presidencies actually increased.

 

 

Can the Democrats Retake the House in 2018?

Now that all the gnashing of teeth has ended after the Republicans managed to hold on to the Georgia Sixth, perhaps we can step back and take a more systematic look at the Democrats’ prospects in 2018. Democrats will likely not make any gains in the Senate since the Republicans have only eight seats at-risk compared to twenty-three Democrats and both independents, Maine’s Angus King and Vermont’s Bernie Sanders.  That leaves the House as the only target.

There are two steps involved in answering this question.  The first is to use our historical experience with House elections to examine how votes are translated into seats.  With that information we can estimate the proportion of the two-party House vote that the Democrats need to win to take back the House in 2018.

As I wrote back in 2012, a combination of geographic clustering by party and good old partisan gerrymandering has created a “Republican bulwark” in the House since the last redistricting after the 2010 Census.  That means that the Democrats will need to win more than a majority of the popular vote for Congress if they intend to win a majority of House seats.

I have refined this simple seats and votes model in two ways.  First, I let the “swing ratio” vary between two historical periods, 1940-1992 and 1994-2016. Empirically the effects of voting “swings” on seat “swings” is significantly smaller in the more recent period.  As Tufte argues in his classic paper on the seats/votes relationship, a decline in the swing ratio indicates an increase in the proportion of “safe” seats.  As fewer and fewer seats have vote shares around fifty percent, there are consequently fewer that can be “flipped” by an equivalent shift in voters’ preferences.

I also use the results for the 2014 and 2016 elections to more sharply estimate the effect since 2010.  If we calculate the popular vote share required for the Democrats to win half the seats in the House, they would need to secure a bit over 53 percent of the (two-party) votes cast.

That brings us to the second question, what are the chances that the Democrats could win 53 percent of the Congressional vote in 2018?  Answering that question deserves an article unto itself.

 

Technical Appendix: Seats and Votes in the 2018 Election

I am extending the simple model I presented in 2012 relating the proportion of House seats won by Democrats against that party’s share of the (two-party) national popular vote for Congressional candidates.  It uses dummy variables to represent each redistricting period (e.g., the 2000 Census was used to redistrict elections from 2002-2010), and a slope change that starts with the Republican House victory of 1994.

To review, the earlier model showed this pattern of partisan advantage for elections conducted since 1940:

The results for the 2010 redistricting were based solely on the 2012 election.  As we’ll see in a moment, adding in 2014 and 2016 only made that result more robust.

As I argued earlier, not all of this trend results from partisan gerrymandering.  Americans have sorted themselves geographically over the past half-century with Democrats representing seats from urban areas and Republicans holding seats from suburban and rural areas.  As partisans self-segregate, the number of “safe” seats rises, and electoral competitiveness declines.

Partisan self-segregation also makes gerrymandering easier.  Opponents can be “packed” into districts where they make up a super-majority.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi routinely wins 80 percent or more of the voters in her tiny, but densely populated San Francisco district.  Many of these seats are held by minority Members of Congress because of our national policy of encouraging “majority-minority” districts.   These efforts were well-motivated as a response to racist gerrymandering that would “crack” minority areas and distribute pieces of them in a number of majority-white districts.  Unfortunately for the Democrats these policies have meant that too many of the party’s voters live in heavily-Democratic districts.

Here is the result of an ordinary least squares regression for the share of House seats won by the Democrats in elections since 1940:

If I plot the predicted and actual values for Democratic seats won, the model unsurprisingly follows the historical pattern quite closely:

The Democrats routinely won around sixty percent of House seats between 1940 and 1992.  Since then they have only held a majority in the House twice, in 2006 and 2008.  Notice, too, that both the actual and predicted values for 1994 to the present show much less variance than the earlier decades.  The results above show that the “swing ratio” relating seats and votes has become much smaller falling from 1.92 before 1994 to 1.33 (=-0.59+1.92) since.  A smaller swing ratio indicates that House elections have become less competitive since Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992.  Changes in vote shares are still amplified in seat outcomes, as they are in all first-past-the-post electoral systems like ours, but the effect has been diminished because of the increase in the number of safe seats on both sides of the aisle.

We can use this model to estimate the share of votes required in order for the Democrats to win a majority in the House.  This chart shows the predicted relationships between seats and votes for two historical periods, one through the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, and the other beginning with the Republican victory in the House election of 1994 under Newt Gingrich and his “Contract with America.”

The slope in the latter period is substantially flatter than in the earlier period, meaning that Congressional elections have become somewhat less competitive since 1992.  Changes in vote shares have a smaller effect on changes in seat shares than they did before 1994.

Finally, the third line represents an estimate for the relationship in 2018, using the 1994-2016 slope and only the post-2010 intercept shift.  The chart shows that for the Democrats to win half the seats in 2018 they will need to garner a bit over 53 percent of the two-party popular vote for the House.

 

 

*The intercepts in these charts represent weighted averages of the adjustments for the various Census years. For instance, the 1994-2016 line includes the coefficients for the 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census weighted by the number of elections in each decade. So in this case the 1990 and 2000 adjustments would have weights of five, and the 2010 adjustment a weight of three. The 2018 line applies only the 2010 redistricting adjustment.