As in every Presidential election, the outcome will be determined by a very small number of states. As I did in 2012, I have compiled the polls in these “swing” states and counted up the number of times Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump was in the lead. I have included every poll conducted so far that includes both candidates; the oldest poll was taken in late June of 2015. I intend to update these results limiting them to only recent polls as the election nears.
Two states – Michigan and Pennsylvania – have supported Hillary Clinton consistently enough that there is just a small chance, less than one in twenty, the race is actually tied or she is behind Donald Trump in those states. The other four states remain toss-ups.
Pennsylvania tempts Republicans to compete there every election cycle, and this one is no exception. Still the state has trended Democrat in Presidential elections since the late 1960’s.